Lewin on two Lamb’s tales

March 5, 2014 Leave a comment

Bernie Lewin has written an excellent two part history about Hubert Lamb of CRU, with mention of Manley, Wigley and many more.

Such sentiments were not shared by many of Lamb’s colleagues and certainly not by the new director of the Met Office, B J Mason, appointed after Sutton retired in 1965. The new director was a vocal skeptic of cyclic natural climatic change across historical time, the nature of which Lamb was intent on establishing. Mason preferred to explain recent changes as evidence of only random fluctuations on different time scales [1, 2]. He made it clear that he did not value Lamb’s work and expressed concerns about Mr Lamb’s lack of qualifications as a climatologist. But there was more behind Mason’s dim view of Lambs efforts to glean climate data from historical archives.

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WM Briggs: From Latin & Greek To Remedial English

February 24, 2014 Leave a comment

Briggs has posted an article bemoaning how education has changed, many will agree. This produced a wonderful series of comments as apt this side of the Atlantic.

Such as

Gary on 22 February 2014 at 10:49 am said: That’s pretty much the reason. Education over the last century has evolved from a cottage industry to a mass manufacturing process (e.g., my rural town closed its one-room school houses in 1952 and developed a regional system as the population grew). Quality assurance never achieved 100% success, but in the old days academic failures could rely on the need for a manual labor force. Failure is more obvious today. Academic successes have always had a greater field of opportunity.
The mistake is to think of education as a mass production effort. It’s really artistry sculpting one student at a time. And production depends primarily on the motivation of the product itself, as your example illustrates. Those who run the current system, except for the homeschoolers perhaps, are too removed from the objects of their concern to do an adequate job for most of them. The unstated truth is that we actually educate ourselves, using the guidance of others. We don’t open skulls and pour in knowledge.

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Categories: Minder

UK Winter 2013/2014 storms

February 17, 2014 1 comment
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Figure 1

Figure 1 (click for larger) is showing surface level air movement from weather GCM. The stuck cold air mass over North America is part of a lack of rotation of the polar air mass leading to a stuck Atlantic circulation bringing repeated storms to Northern Europe where the energy is from the ocean circa Caribbean but with a back feed from the coast of Africa. Around and around. The parallel red arrows are showing where cyclone and anti-cyclone meet, to the left there is a sharp merge of three flows, an unstable region, the shear point is where the St Jude’s day storm formed.

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Figure 2 (click for 2.3MB animation)

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Figure 3 (click for 1.44MB animation)

Two GIF animations, figure 2 for wind including figure 1, figure 3 for rain. Click to open full size and activate.

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Categories: analysis, weather

Met Office spurious sea level claim

February 15, 2014 1 comment

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Link to XLS download (15kB, Excel 97/2003)

During January 2014 the Met Office promoted a forecast claim of 11-16cm sea level rise by 2030. This failed external review and was replaced by asserting the mistake was omitting to mention the rise was from a 24 year old reference date.

The Met Office changed their text by mentioning 1990 but omitted (at time of writing) to recompute the claimed sea level rise which sensibly must be from today, not 24 years ago.

An earlier part of the saga is linked here
http://mygardenpond.wordpress.com/2014/02/09/met-office-report-says-sea-levels-likely-to-rise-11-16-cm-by-2030/

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Categories: analysis, sea level

Even NASA have trouble prising raw data out of friend researchers

January 24, 2014 1 comment

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Image couresty NASA, discovery of a new class of star

This is a tale where I am going to maintain cloaking embarressment over wasting the time of others.

The original version of this story, which I have read, is not as kind, Rather annoyed folks were writing.

In many cases raw data is not available or only pseudo raw, ie. cooked in various unspecified or even unknown ways, when raw means what it says, original instrumentation data, with ancillary full information. Too often claims of raw are plain nonsense. This has wasted my time, prevented proper data processing, etc. a lot of tales I could recount.

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Interplanetary influence

January 22, 2014 Leave a comment

I’m using my own blog as a spillover from Tallbloke’s Talkshop where I co-moderate and contribute.  

Michele Casati runs an Italian language science blog called New Ice Age. He is particularly interested in earthquakes and an eclectic mix of possible external triggers for earth events. At various times I’ve put together some large articles on the Talkshop for an English airing, creating a fair degree of interest. Michele tends to reveal things hidden to the anglophone world.

He often posts links to new articles in Suggestions at the Talkshop. Let’s air a new one, of fringe interest but who knows where history leads.

Michele Casati: Alexander Sytinskaya, a little known scientist

A geophysicist, Alexander D. Sytinskaya, was born July 12, 1925 in the Yaroslavl region of Russia. Graduated in 1953, then took part in Soviet Russian Antarctic and Artic expeditions where he dealt with seismology.

I’ll leave it at that, read the whole article, in Italian but browser translate will I hope work well enough http://daltonsminima.altervista.org/?p=27624

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Ozone Northern Hemisphere dance

December 7, 2013 Leave a comment
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Image processed to show land outlines and grid

Northern hemisphere ozone receives little attention.

Fairly recently a partial view of the north has become available, still incomplete, model output, nevertheless this might be eye opening.

The images used here are from NASA [1]  are tilted partial northern hemisphere. Image left  here is making the geography clear, barely makes the Mediterranean, southern US or Japan.

Fingers of ozone reaching far south has been known for a long time, pre-dates satellites, is rarely mentioned.

Satellite sensing is restricted by how it has to be done: the only proper way is by transmission through the atmosphere, which means from the ground. Reason: measurement uses the difference in absorption between a pair of spectral lines where a light source shining through, daytime the sun, night-time reflected sunlight, the moon, hence remote sensing has no data night side.

(see http://daedalearth.wordpress.com/2013/07/13/stratospheric-ozone-dobson-history-at-oxford/) Read more…

Categories: Ozone

Met Office reports of day extremes 2013

December 2, 2013 Leave a comment

Over much of 2013 I have been collecting the extremes for a day as reported by the UK Met Office. April up to 1st December.

Example as copied

24 hours ending 2100 on 1 Dec 2013:UK
Highest max 0900-2100 11.7 °C Gt Cumbrae Millport
Lowest max 0900-2100 5.1 °C Okehampton
Lowest min 2100-0900 -4.1 °C Exeter Airport
Highest rainfall 2100-2100 3.2 mm Cluanie Inn
Sunniest 2100-2100 6.8 hours Wittering
Last updated: 2302 on Sun 1 Dec 2013

This might be useful / of interest to a few people so I have processed the information into a flat field spreadsheet form. I considered full Normal form but lets keep things simple, I’ve done the hard part.

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Categories: Datasets, weather

What makes the warmist-skeptic fight go on and on?

November 15, 2013 Leave a comment

tchannon:

Doug from time to time drops these wonderful essays in comments here and there. Watts read and elevated.

Brevity is the tricky one.

And another thing… wherein is turn off.

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

sisyphus-catElevated from a comment by Doug Proctor November 14, 2013 at 10:00 am

I’ve been thinking about what makes the warmist-skeptic fight go on and on. What I have noted is the constant difference in how each side places its emphasis, and that this shows up in its speech. Specifically, the skeptics use declarative, as in “this will”, “this shall” or “this does”, and, of course, its negative equals. The warmists use conditionals, i.e. words like “could” or “should” or “may” or “might” that indicate undefined probabilities and, in truth, possibilities, things that are determinable only after the fact.

The use of conditionals after 25 years is remarkable (here I make a declarative statement). Despite all the models and claims of correlation/matching of observation, we still have no “does”, “shall” or “will” in the IPCC or other CAGW programme. The dangers and fears are in the distant future, discussed only…

View original 1,138 more words

Categories: Uncategorized

Demonstration of fractional delay function on real data

November 13, 2013 1 comment
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Figure 1

The meteorological station at Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland closed in 2000[1]. A lot of the data has been made online access via scanned logbooks and some digitised data, paid for primarily by lottery funds.

An unpublished version of the data is used as part of a fractional delay demonstration.

Earlier article providing a template and instructions is

http://daedalearth.wordpress.com/2013/11/12/fractional-dataset-delay-subsample-resolution-in-a-spreadsheet/

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