Looks to be important, more confirmaton of the 1980s shift seen around the world. As I recall Leroux suggested the 1980 step change needed explaining before running off doing projections. Another place to look is FAO and fish population studies, not just the tropics.
Originally posted on Climate Audit:
This is a guest post by Ross McKitrick. Tim Vogelsang and I have a new paper comparing climate models and observations over a 55-year span (1958-2012) in the tropical troposphere. Among other things we show that climate models are inconsistent with the HadAT, RICH and RAOBCORE weather balloon series. In a nutshell, the models not only predict far too much warming, but they potentially get the nature of the change wrong. The models portray a relatively smooth upward trend over the whole span, while the data exhibit a single jump in the late 1970s, with no statistically significant trend either side.
Our paper is called “HAC-Robust Trend Comparisons Among Climate Series With Possible Level Shifts.” It was published in Environmetrics, and is available with Open Access thanks to financial support from CIGI/INET. Data and code are here and in the paper’s SI.
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Following on from yesterday where Paul Homewood picked up on a comment I made on his blog see Luling Keeps Changing June 29, 2014, I took a look today at the NCDC data.
Maybe I picked up the wrong files, seems surreal.
I am now going to be precise step by step.
A recent saga started by Paul Homewood over apparently excessive “homogenisation” for one of a vast number of US volunteer run weather stations led me to take a look. I’ll link Paul’s blog articles as an appendix.
The station is at Luling Foundation Farm, an agricultural station set up prior to WWII. The weather data runs from 1949.
Luling station house looking south
They have a good web site which gives a history, starting the unravelling of the situation. http://lulingfoundation.org/our-history
A 10 year old paper in JGR unearthed a slight solar effect in the atmosphere and whilst the paper is mentioned in various blog comments around the netnote, a quick search suggests it hasn’t had direct exposure. No harm done if it has.
Subset of Figure 4 from the paper, y-axis is atmospheric pressure hPa. Above is a hovmoller diagram.
Argument over whether the two long ice cores, EPICA and Vostok are evidence of CO2 leading or lagging temperature has been going on ever since the core data was published. I assume the reader knows this.
A snippet has turned up as a result of an article at Bishop Hill.
Republished images as an aide memoir for the subject
Plots, own work. Pertinence, read on.
The Bishop Hill article is from an anonymous teacher of statistics where a cross-disipline dispute arose.
This is a major work started during January. Results for the 17 Met Office areal time series from 1910 are presented standardised and ranked.
The only region of the 17 with remarkable rainfall was the data combination South East and Central Southern England with a Z-score of +3.2 based on de-annualised.
The primary plots and presentation is in PDF format where zoom can be used. Here is the file (2MB)
The objective was if possible Standardising the data with the intention of
- revealing any data structure
- allowing better regional comparison
- producing a statistical measure for both dry and wet periods in spite of the wet/dry process being effectively non-linear, it does not rain dryness
The result is successful. A noise signal with no obvious structure appears. In common language it is called weather.
A calculation of Return Period for the most affected 2013 / 2014 area via GEV software gives a figure of 33 years. GEV is a huge subject where results need a contextual interpretation. See ref2
This large article was composed some time ago, last edit Oct 2013 it seems but left unpublished, one of dozens.
There is a disturbing story behind the current CET dataset as will be revealed in Part 2. The above plot sets the scene, a straight illustration of the whole dataset with timeline.
This blog article is intended as a backgrounder covering a variety of information including links to official copies of the two historic Manley papers which are the basis of the CET dataset. In my opinion CET is misrepresented as more instrument based than it is in reality. More reasonably it is an expert opinion on weather.
The Met Office CET web page mentions the whole data then plays pea and thimble silently showing a plot of the later subset. Reason to be revealed in part 2.
Bernie Lewin has written an excellent two part history about Hubert Lamb of CRU, with mention of Manley, Wigley and many more.
Such sentiments were not shared by many of Lamb’s colleagues and certainly not by the new director of the Met Office, B J Mason, appointed after Sutton retired in 1965. The new director was a vocal skeptic of cyclic natural climatic change across historical time, the nature of which Lamb was intent on establishing. Mason preferred to explain recent changes as evidence of only random fluctuations on different time scales [1, 2]. He made it clear that he did not value Lamb’s work and expressed concerns about Mr Lamb’s lack of qualifications as a climatologist. But there was more behind Mason’s dim view of Lambs efforts to glean climate data from historical archives.
Briggs has posted an article bemoaning how education has changed, many will agree. This produced a wonderful series of comments as apt this side of the Atlantic.
Gary on 22 February 2014 at 10:49 am said: That’s pretty much the reason. Education over the last century has evolved from a cottage industry to a mass manufacturing process (e.g., my rural town closed its one-room school houses in 1952 and developed a regional system as the population grew). Quality assurance never achieved 100% success, but in the old days academic failures could rely on the need for a manual labor force. Failure is more obvious today. Academic successes have always had a greater field of opportunity.
The mistake is to think of education as a mass production effort. It’s really artistry sculpting one student at a time. And production depends primarily on the motivation of the product itself, as your example illustrates. Those who run the current system, except for the homeschoolers perhaps, are too removed from the objects of their concern to do an adequate job for most of them. The unstated truth is that we actually educate ourselves, using the guidance of others. We don’t open skulls and pour in knowledge.
Figure 1 (click for larger) is showing surface level air movement from weather GCM. The stuck cold air mass over North America is part of a lack of rotation of the polar air mass leading to a stuck Atlantic circulation bringing repeated storms to Northern Europe where the energy is from the ocean circa Caribbean but with a back feed from the coast of Africa. Around and around. The parallel red arrows are showing where cyclone and anti-cyclone meet, to the left there is a sharp merge of three flows, an unstable region, the shear point is where the St Jude’s day storm formed.
Two GIF animations, figure 2 for wind including figure 1, figure 3 for rain. Click to open full size and activate.