The solar polar magnetic field goes through zero at about sunspot cycle maximum, with the magnetic cycle running at half the speed, one reason why alternate sunspot cycles are similar.

The present solar situation is genuinely anomalous with no-one clear on what is going to happen next.

This is a local copy as of posting date of Dr Hathaway’s version of the butterfly diagram (click for full size). The excellent web page with links to data and current diagram is here

Wilcox data and plots here, more general page here with other metrics.

SIDC data etc. is here

I chose the easy way to align SSN and the magnetic data for plotting. Daily SSN is low pass filtered at about 25 days, then decimated to identical points as the magnetic data, 10 days. This is accurate enough. End compensation is used.

If anyone wants the data used, ask, can do an xls.

Daily data from IJIS/JAXA.

I’ve modelled the annual cycle and subtracted from the data.

There is still no obvious change making it clear where the Arctic ice is going to meander next.

Data

www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

This is likely to be controversial and dismissed by some as invalid, which is their problem.

The RSS data is monthly.

Topex/Jason data is sampled roughly every 10 days, processed into monthly and then normalised to the RSS data.

Both month data were low pass filtered at 10 years, with end correction. This is likely to be dismissed as impossible, look, it is self evidently about right.

All four are plotted above.

Other work has suggested there is a correlation between temperature and sea level, sea level lagging perhaps 4 years. (I doubt many people think that sea level causes temperature)

The actual sea level rises being talked about are extremely small relative to the size of the planet.

What if the top few x metres of sea water are warmed by 0.2K?

Look back a couple of posts and you will see Vostok ice core plots.

What I have done now is flip the temperature proxy data upside down. This ought to roughly represent ice and puts the data the same way around as the earth sea ice plots. More ice is upward, melt is downwards.

I then used a very crude approximation to some kind of orbital signal, actually locks in at 103ky.

This is known wrong in relation to orbits (explain more in a moment) but food for thought.

Do you now see why the widespread notion that sharp melts cannot come from a simple stimulation is a highly questionable assumption? It should be considered feasible and with no magic or particular non-linearity.

Assistance

I would appreciate assistance with very long orbital period calculation. I have the capability to carry out some novel experimentation using accurate orbital data, which I do not have.

One of the very interesting features is apparently the variation in the eccentricity of the earth orbit on these very long timescales, ie. it varies with at least two periods. I hope the reason why this is so interesting is not lost on the reader.

You will have seen the plots of Arctic sea ice. I am going to use one dataset here, which one is unimportant, others give the same answer.

Arctic sea ice extent, monthly data

I can model that very closely using a single function plus a fixed offset, which is unimportant.

Model data matched to the ice data

Now here is one overlaying the other.

Data and model overlay

The match is r2=0.96

Here is the remainder, subtract the model from the data

Remainder not accounted by the model

Now lets switch to showing you the details.

Model and underlying sine

The function is trivially simple, a pure sine wave with a period of 2 years which has been made single polarity.

Here are the spectra

And it ought to be no surprise given this

Why does the ice amount follow that exact law?

Superimposed the earth sun distance variation

The data from the SORCE satellite which measures TSI also includes data for 1AU distance i.e. earth/sun distance and this primarily shows the variation in solar irradiation during earth orbit.

Look carefully, minimum ice occurs when solar irradiation is highest and the converse. Perhaps the surprise is the almost exact sine/cosine shape but that is a pure rotating vector… and so is a near circular planet orbit, ours.

My critical point here is the creation of a unipolar signal from a bipolar stimulation. This is a non-linearity and creates an otherwise unexpected harmonic structure. I point out that the sunspot cycle is something similar, can only but appearing sunspots, never negative spots! (the solar magnetics tell a different story and why there is an underlying slower magnetic cycle)

SORCE 1AU

Commentary.

In fact the earth has an inclined axis, not quite the same thing as the TSI variation, but the SORCE data is a very accurate measurement. (the shown curve is from a model derived from 3 hourly data)

You will notice the phase of the ice variation and the phase of TSI differ slightly. The exact projection used by the the sea ice data providers influences this, JAXA/IJIS is slightly different. (same result, yes)

The same effect does not occur for the Antarctic which is land surrounded by sea ice instead of sea ice surrounded by land as it is for the Arctic.

From a palaeoclimatology point of view the elliptical earth orbit is not contant.

This like says a little about this with more detail than usual in general texts

http://www.personal.soton.ac.uk/ejr/DarkMed/ch5.html

I will leave it at that for the moment.

NOAA and SORCE are both very well known datasets, I give no links.

This seems to confirm a huge date mistmatch between the two sets of ice core data.

This is a deliberately large plot. Contact me if you need data or help.

Composite of signal processing resampled data from two ice cores

Simplest way to provide data is an export to XLS format of work, warts and all.

Contains usable resampled data and originals

Added later, easiest way to provide data is export to XLS, is scruffy workfile

epica-1

Seemed a good test to see if I could reproduce the temperature vs. CO2 lead lag result but using signal processing, data resampling. Turns out  the CO2 data is even worse than the isotope ratio temperature data, fewer data points and sampled at different dates.

Easy. I applied identical processing to both datasets and then figured out how to time shift one of them. To my surprise there is a very high correlation, r2=0.82, at least given the preprocessing used. The quick and dirty way to do the time shift was apply an offset at the decimate stage, simply picks off data at a different point. (this is valid)

If I have done this right it is about 1,500 years for best fit of rise and fall. I then aligned the datasets and plotted (Y axis reacaled and offset CO2 by hand so the data roughly matches on one scale)  for an eyeball.

Time co-incident plot of temperature and CO2

There is obviously a lot going on but there it is visibly on one plot.

A net dig shows a work by Jo Nova (know the name, no idea who she is)

http://joannenova.com.au/global-warming/ice-core-graph/

That says 800 years and seems to cite others.

Ref

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/metadata/noaa-icecore-2453.html

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/antarctica/vostok/co2nat.txt

The result  is an interactive spreadsheet which might be useful.

I would not usually  produce such a monster, this is an xls >30Mbyte but it does include reconstruction of the lunar LoD signal, subtraction from the raw LoD and decimation for plotting. It is live, you can turn on or off individual terms/factors and see the effect.

This needs a great deal of explanation, codas, and so on.

For now here is the file lod-work

Do not try this unless you have a fairly large computer. Checked it works with gnumeric, openoffice/libreoffice. Excel should not have a problem but recursion is used.

I will present the cross check first, this has a very real basis.

The Wiltshire Heritage Museum is based in Devizes, Wiltshire. Not so far from here and now I must visit when the opportunity arises. I know the henge area, where my father grew up, know this from the times where our heritage was ours and not stolen by the exploiters.

http://www.wiltshireheritage.org.uk/

A bizarre artefact held Is the Bush Barrow “lozenge”

http://www.wiltshireheritage.org.uk/galleries/index.php?Action=3&obID=89&prevID=9

A new zealander has written his interpretation of what this is

http://www.celticnz.co.nz/BBLOZ/BBLOZWEB1.htm

Enjoy.

Out of politeness here is his home page where there is a lot more in articles

http://www.celticnz.co.nz/