Preamble, do not take this work too literally. the intent is food for thought.
Recent very long free thinking discussion (paged comments) on Tallbloke’s Talkshop evolved into trying to create a model of astronomical effect on the sun of planetary parameters, a longstanding tantalising problem where “ought to” and reality throw buns. Probably fits the tales of the farmer of old leaning on the farm gate chewing straw watching fools trying to get the cart under the bridge. Won’t fit but watching is fun. Lets hope that one day more is learnt.
Trenberth is widely alleged to have written things about missing heat, good headlines but not really what he wrote.
He was upset over being unable to explain a divergence between what he expected from models and actual data, complaining the data is inadequate, presumably something which was either not measured or inaccurate. The reader can find the precise words if they want.
I hold the opinion the data we have is poor, hence things such as US Standards body questions absolute accuracy of TSI instruments, we increasingly are unsure about what solar factors affect earth and other more technical issues.
I put it like this: the calculations involved do not cross check. Trenberth is admitting for all the vast amount of money spent, man lifetimes of effort, the data is still too poor to figure out what is wrong.
Since then hiding heat, the missing heat problem has been discussed widely, papers published and still no answer, at least that I have heard about.
The assumption is that AGW theory is correct but the earth as a grand calorimeter says no.
Figure 1 from paper, for extensive caption see paper or copied below.
I. Ermolli1, K. Matthes2, T. Dudok de Wit3, N. A. Krivova4, K. Tourpali5, M. Weber6, Y. C. Unruh7, L. Gray8, U. Langematz9, P. Pilewskie10, E. Rozanov11,12, W. Schmutz11, A. Shapiro11, S. K. Solanki 4,13, and T. N. Woods10
- INAF, Osservatorio Astronomico di Roma, Monte Porzio Catone, Italy
- GEOMAR I Helmholtz-Zentrum für Ozeanforschung Kiel, Kiel, Germany
- LPC2E, CNRS and University of Orléans, Orléans, France
- Max-Planck-Institut für Sonnensystemforschung, 37191 Katlenburg-Lindau, Germany
- Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece
- Institut für Umweltphysik, Universität Bremen FB1, Bremen, Germany
- Astrophysics Group, Blackett Laboratory, Imperial College London, SW7 2AZ, UK
- Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Dept. of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, UK
- Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
- University of Colorado, Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, Boulder, CO, USA
- Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium, World Radiation Center, Davos Dorf, Switzerland
- IAC ETH, Zurich, Switzerland
- School of Space Research, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, Gyeonggi 46-701, Republic of Korea