Home > analysis, sea level > Met Office spurious sea level claim

Met Office spurious sea level claim


Link to XLS download (15kB, Excel 97/2003)

During January 2014 the Met Office promoted a forecast claim of 11-16cm sea level rise by 2030. This failed external review and was replaced by asserting the mistake was omitting to mention the rise was from a 24 year old reference date.

The Met Office changed their text by mentioning 1990 but omitted (at time of writing) to recompute the claimed sea level rise which sensibly must be from today, not 24 years ago.

An earlier part of the saga is linked here

Ocean level can vary locally, for example the effect of the Atlantic Gulf Stream or the Indian ocean depression. Gauges are subject to reference movement, the earth being just a thin crust of dross floating on a liquid core with water over some parts. The Newlyn tide gauge (used as a reference data above) is representative of oceanic level change.

Our forefathers had the wisdom to place a brass pin in a geological sized lump of Cornish granite during WWI, that is the reference for sea level and at a location close to open ocean and without major tidal estuary instability.

As a counterpoint halfway around the world by open ocean but set on unstable land is Fremantle.


A verbatim long tide gauge record from Australia.

This came from a large unpublished work here which is about the Fremantle record after a false claim by a prominent AGW activist came to my attention. The person wrote: on “bed rock” and with “accelerating sea level rise”.

Contrary to claim the gauge is not on bed rock unless you count a thin and fractured layer which is part of complex and deep alluvial deposits ocean side of the long north/south Darling geological fault, separating the coast from a huge ancient plate.

A linear trend of 1.63mm/yr vs. 1.77mm/yr is the widespread value around the world.



There is a mountain of geologic material available to do with the coastal Perth strip.

Further publication

Unfortunately, The Guardian have published the original Met Office claim. I hope the responsible officers at the Met Office are aware of this and discover any other instances.

Categories: analysis, sea level
  1. February 15, 2014 at 22:42

    I've just realised there is a mistake in the image, teach me to be too clever, picked up the wrong figure for "engineering". Pain to correct.
    Nope. Must still be too tired and recovering.

  1. December 27, 2015 at 17:31

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