Home > Uncategorized > New Paper by McKitrick and Vogelsang comparing models and observations in the tropical troposphere

New Paper by McKitrick and Vogelsang comparing models and observations in the tropical troposphere

Looks to be important, more confirmaton of the 1980s shift seen around the world. As I recall Leroux suggested the 1980 step change needed explaining before running off doing projections. Another place to look is FAO and fish population studies, not just the tropics.

Climate Audit

This is a guest post by Ross McKitrick. Tim Vogelsang and I have a new paper comparing climate models and observations over a 55-year span (1958-2012) in the tropical troposphere. Among other things we show that climate models are inconsistent with the HadAT, RICH and RAOBCORE weather balloon series. In a nutshell, the models not only predict far too much warming, but they potentially get the nature of the change wrong. The models portray a relatively smooth upward trend over the whole span, while the data exhibit a single jump in the late 1970s, with no statistically significant trend either side.

Our paper is called “HAC-Robust Trend Comparisons Among Climate Series With Possible Level Shifts.” It was published in Environmetrics, and is available with Open Access thanks to financial support from CIGI/INET. Data and code are here and in the paper’s SI.

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