An 11 year solar signal in the atmosphere

A 10 year old paper in JGR unearthed a slight solar effect in the atmosphere and whilst the paper is mentioned in various blog comments around the net^note, a quick search suggests it hasn’t had direct exposure. No harm done if it has.

Subset of Figure 4 from the paper, y-axis is atmospheric pressure hPa. Above is a hovmoller diagram.

Ice core CO2 and temperature, lead or lag, ongoing saga

Argument over whether the two long ice cores, EPICA and Vostok are evidence of CO2 leading or lagging temperature has been going on ever since the core data was published. I assume the reader knows this.

A snippet has turned up as a result of an article at Bishop Hill.

Republished images as an aide memoir for the subject

Figure 1, click full size

Plots, own work. Pertinence, read on.

The Bishop Hill article is from an anonymous teacher of statistics where a cross-disipline dispute arose.

Standardised UK rainfall data, putting winter 2013/2014 into context

This is a major work started during January. Results for the 17 Met Office areal time series from 1910 are presented standardised and ranked.

The only region of the 17 with remarkable rainfall was the data combination South East and Central Southern England with a Z-score of +3.2 based on de-annualised.

The primary plots and presentation is in PDF format where zoom can be used. Here is the file (2MB)

The objective was if possible Standardising the data with the intention of

• revealing any data structure
• allowing better regional comparison
• producing a statistical measure for both dry and wet periods in spite of the wet/dry process being effectively non-linear, it does not rain dryness

The result is successful. A noise signal with no obvious structure appears. In common language it is called weather.

A calculation of Return Period for the most affected 2013 / 2014 area via GEV software gives a figure of 33 years. GEV is a huge subject where results need a contextual interpretation. See ref2

UK Winter 2013/2014 storms

Figure 1

Figure 1 (click for larger) is showing surface level air movement from weather GCM. The stuck cold air mass over North America is part of a lack of rotation of the polar air mass leading to a stuck Atlantic circulation bringing repeated storms to Northern Europe where the energy is from the ocean circa Caribbean but with a back feed from the coast of Africa. Around and around. The parallel red arrows are showing where cyclone and anti-cyclone meet, to the left there is a sharp merge of three flows, an unstable region, the shear point is where the St Jude’s day storm formed.

Figure 2 (click for 2.3MB animation)

Figure 3 (click for 1.44MB animation)

Two GIF animations, figure 2 for wind including figure 1, figure 3 for rain. Click to open full size and activate.

Met Office spurious sea level claim

Link to XLS download (15kB, Excel 97/2003)

During January 2014 the Met Office promoted a forecast claim of 11-16cm sea level rise by 2030. This failed external review and was replaced by asserting the mistake was omitting to mention the rise was from a 24 year old reference date.

The Met Office changed their text by mentioning 1990 but omitted (at time of writing) to recompute the claimed sea level rise which sensibly must be from today, not 24 years ago.

An earlier part of the saga is linked here
http://mygardenpond.wordpress.com/2014/02/09/met-office-report-says-sea-levels-likely-to-rise-11-16-cm-by-2030/

Even NASA have trouble prising raw data out of friend researchers

Image couresty NASA, discovery of a new class of star

This is a tale where I am going to maintain cloaking embarressment over wasting the time of others.

The original version of this story, which I have read, is not as kind, Rather annoyed folks were writing.

In many cases raw data is not available or only pseudo raw, ie. cooked in various unspecified or even unknown ways, when raw means what it says, original instrumentation data, with ancillary full information. Too often claims of raw are plain nonsense. This has wasted my time, prevented proper data processing, etc. a lot of tales I could recount.

Demonstration of fractional delay function on real data

Figure 1

The meteorological station at Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland closed in 2000[1]. A lot of the data has been made online access via scanned logbooks and some digitised data, paid for primarily by lottery funds.

An unpublished version of the data is used as part of a fractional delay demonstration.

Earlier article providing a template and instructions is
https://daedalearth.wordpress.com/2013/11/12/fractional-dataset-delay-subsample-resolution-in-a-spreadsheet/

Strong evidence for linear law removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figures 1 and 2 are demonstrating both northern[1] and southern[2] hemisphere decay from a Dirac injection[3] of a test signal. The consequent effect is very close to perfectly linear, proportionality between pressure and effect of pressure over more than an order of magnitude of data variation (hence linear law). This seems to destroy IPCC claim of a non-simple law. Deviation is <1%

In addition the effect is a simple low pass filter on all kinds of atmospheric carbon dioxide. A later article might cover this in detail.

Northen hemisphere ice and snow area, first look

Figure 1

Hemisphere area coverage of snow and ice for land and ocean. Early data has been excluded after discovering an anomaly with early daily sea ice data, excluded is early part which is every other day data.[1]

This is an experimental first attempt at creating a hemisphere ice coverage dataset.

Why? I don’t like hidden information, want to see for myself and perhaps shed more light on whatever is going on.

As with sea ice data there is a distinct increase in the amplitude of the annual cycle in recent years. No attempt has been made to produce a more regular annual cycle exclusion.

A non-linear solar cycle exploration

Preamble, do not take this work too literally. the intent is food for thought.

Figure 1

Recent very long free thinking discussion (paged comments) on Tallbloke’s Talkshop evolved into trying to create a model of astronomical effect on the sun of planetary parameters, a longstanding tantalising problem where “ought to” and reality throw buns. Probably fits the tales of the farmer of old leaning on the farm gate chewing straw watching fools trying to get the cart under the bridge. Won’t fit but watching is fun. Lets hope that one day more is learnt.