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Ice core CO2 and temperature, lead or lag, ongoing saga

June 17, 2014 1 comment

Argument over whether the two long ice cores, EPICA and Vostok are evidence of CO2 leading or lagging temperature has been going on ever since the core data was published. I assume the reader knows this.

A snippet has turned up as a result of an article at Bishop Hill.

Republished images as an aide memoir for the subject

Figure 1, click full size

Figure 1, click full size

Plots, own work. Pertinence, read on.

The Bishop Hill article is from an anonymous teacher of statistics where a cross-disipline dispute arose.

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Lewin on two Lamb’s tales

March 5, 2014 Leave a comment

Bernie Lewin has written an excellent two part history about Hubert Lamb of CRU, with mention of Manley, Wigley and many more.

Such sentiments were not shared by many of Lamb’s colleagues and certainly not by the new director of the Met Office, B J Mason, appointed after Sutton retired in 1965. The new director was a vocal skeptic of cyclic natural climatic change across historical time, the nature of which Lamb was intent on establishing. Mason preferred to explain recent changes as evidence of only random fluctuations on different time scales [1, 2]. He made it clear that he did not value Lamb’s work and expressed concerns about Mr Lamb’s lack of qualifications as a climatologist. But there was more behind Mason’s dim view of Lambs efforts to glean climate data from historical archives.

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The Zen of Population (N=0)

November 12, 2013 Leave a comment

Steve McIntyre + Josh = 0

Brilliant precusors and post.

Now notice WUWT are reporting CFC Ozone hole causes warming and cooling, two different studies two years apart.

Climate Audit

Mann rose to prominence by supposedly being able to detect “faint” signals using “advanced” statistical methods. Lewandowsky has taken this to a new level: using lew-statistics, lew-scientists can deduce properties of population with no members. Josh summarizes the zen of lew-statistics as follows:

josh_Zero_Sum_scr

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Categories: controversy, humour

Strong evidence for linear law removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide

September 25, 2013 Leave a comment
Image

Figure 1

Image

Figure 2

Figures 1 and 2 are demonstrating both northern[1] and southern[2] hemisphere decay from a Dirac injection[3] of a test signal. The consequent effect is very close to perfectly linear, proportionality between pressure and effect of pressure over more than an order of magnitude of data variation (hence linear law). This seems to destroy IPCC claim of a non-simple law. Deviation is <1%

In addition the effect is a simple low pass filter on all kinds of atmospheric carbon dioxide. A later article might cover this in detail.

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Trenberth’s missing variable

August 16, 2013 1 comment

Trenberth is widely alleged to have written things about missing heat, good headlines but not really what he wrote.

He was upset over being unable to explain a divergence between what he expected from models and actual data, complaining the data is inadequate, presumably something which was either not measured or inaccurate. The reader can find the precise words if they want.

I hold the opinion the data we have is poor, hence things such as US Standards body questions absolute accuracy of TSI instruments, we increasingly are unsure about what solar factors affect earth and other more technical issues.

I put it like this: the calculations involved do not cross check. Trenberth is admitting for all the vast amount of money spent, man lifetimes of effort, the data is still too poor to figure out what is wrong.

Since then hiding heat, the missing heat problem has been discussed widely, papers published and still no answer, at least that I have heard about.

The assumption is that AGW theory is correct but the earth as a grand calorimeter says no.

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Categories: controversy, entropy, Modelling