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New Paper by McKitrick and Vogelsang comparing models and observations in the tropical troposphere

July 24, 2014 Leave a comment

Looks to be important, more confirmaton of the 1980s shift seen around the world. As I recall Leroux suggested the 1980 step change needed explaining before running off doing projections. Another place to look is FAO and fish population studies, not just the tropics.

Climate Audit

This is a guest post by Ross McKitrick. Tim Vogelsang and I have a new paper comparing climate models and observations over a 55-year span (1958-2012) in the tropical troposphere. Among other things we show that climate models are inconsistent with the HadAT, RICH and RAOBCORE weather balloon series. In a nutshell, the models not only predict far too much warming, but they potentially get the nature of the change wrong. The models portray a relatively smooth upward trend over the whole span, while the data exhibit a single jump in the late 1970s, with no statistically significant trend either side.

Our paper is called “HAC-Robust Trend Comparisons Among Climate Series With Possible Level Shifts.” It was published in Environmetrics, and is available with Open Access thanks to financial support from CIGI/INET. Data and code are here and in the paper’s SI.

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Categories: Uncategorized

What makes the warmist-skeptic fight go on and on?

November 15, 2013 Leave a comment

Doug from time to time drops these wonderful essays in comments here and there. Watts read and elevated.

Brevity is the tricky one.

And another thing… wherein is turn off.

Watts Up With That?

sisyphus-catElevated from a comment by Doug Proctor November 14, 2013 at 10:00 am

I’ve been thinking about what makes the warmist-skeptic fight go on and on. What I have noted is the constant difference in how each side places its emphasis, and that this shows up in its speech. Specifically, the skeptics use declarative, as in “this will”, “this shall” or “this does”, and, of course, its negative equals. The warmists use conditionals, i.e. words like “could” or “should” or “may” or “might” that indicate undefined probabilities and, in truth, possibilities, things that are determinable only after the fact.

The use of conditionals after 25 years is remarkable (here I make a declarative statement). Despite all the models and claims of correlation/matching of observation, we still have no “does”, “shall” or “will” in the IPCC or other CAGW programme. The dangers and fears are in the distant future, discussed only…

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Categories: Uncategorized

Cyclone Yasi and the Willis island Met data

February 2, 2011 Leave a comment

A few minutes ago I looked at the Willis island data and thought wow! the cyclone eye has gone right over, confirmed by other people. Then news the station  is disabled.

Checked again the data has vanished to void. Fortunately I dumped the web page to PDF

Latest Weather Observations Willis Island

See various sites for news.

 

Categories: Uncategorized

Difference between RSS and UAH satellite data?

October 29, 2010 Leave a comment

What is the difference between RSS and UAH lower troposphere temperature data, where each seems to have a following declaring the other bad.

I looked at this some time ago but did not make the findings public.

There is little difference yet devil in the detail.

Rather than spending too long fighting WordPress, here is a PDF.

rss-uah-difference (4 pages, 105k)

 

Categories: Uncategorized

RSS temperatures March 2010

April 5, 2010 Leave a comment

These renders are plain and using autoscale (temperature range is computed from the min/max in the entire dataset and constant for all plots of that dataset, rounds to next 5C)

Read more…

Categories: Uncategorized

Polar view of Arctic polar hot spot

March 19, 2010 Leave a comment

These are the Feburary 2010 polar plots of UAH temperature, orientated to -140 degrees to match some of the Jetstream polar images. Jetstream is far south of normal and has been for several months.

Click on an image for full size view.

Lower troposphere

Mid troposphere

Lower stratosphere

Categories: Uncategorized

Late Blues

March 11, 2010 Leave a comment

Added a page about Blue Lake, Alaska, and what seems to be a confirmation.

See list on the right.

Categories: Uncategorized

Snow extent North America

February 20, 2010 Leave a comment

Talk on WUWT about snow cover tripped a look at the datasets indicated there.

WUWT 1

WUWT 2

The weekly data turns out to be corrupt, something is radically wrong with the sampling, more than an erratic timebase. Tried twice to fix it, no go. Read more…

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Take stock

February 17, 2010 Leave a comment

Seems a good time to make some decisions.

  • Concluded that for the time being leave GISStemp alone, it is too different and liable to change.
  • A lot has been achieved and so consolidating into something useful actually with users is the right move now.
  • Adding fairly standard gridded datasets is easy, just added ghcn merged which took about 5 minutes, with one change needed, had to turn input scaling off. (only because I copied a template which had it on) Seems it might be one of the more interesting datasets.

What really needs doing? Read more…

Categories: Uncategorized

And another one

February 12, 2010 Leave a comment

Progress continues. These are the datasets already done and locally available here.

In directory listing order

  • anom-grid2-1880-current  GHCN
  • channel_tls_tb_anom_v03_2  RSS tls
  • channel_tlt_tb_anom_v03_2 RSS tlt
  • channel_tmt_tb_anom_v03_2 RSS tmt
  • channel_tts_tb_anom_v03_2 RSS tts
  • crutem2
  • crutem3
  • grid_1880-2009_RVose GHCN R Vose
  • hadcrut3
  • hadsst2
  • tlsmonamg_5.1 UAH tls
  • tltmonamg_5.2 UAH tlt
  • tmtmonamg_5.1 UAH tmt

Converting most was not too difficult but RSS proved a spot of “fun”. Binary is not a problem but the documents obfuscate. It gave in but on doing a quick render to eyeball sanity, huh? Data runs from the zero meridian, not as everyone else -180 to 180. A quick and dirty hack fixes that, accumulate into two halves and write out switched over.

RSS supply data in unrounded floats, also unique. That is not how I am storing data so it is chopped to hundredths, good enough for the intended purposes. It wouldn’t be a problem storing full precision except I care about compact and fast enough. All the above database on disk uncompressed is 127M

Point here being the local database version is invariant, always same data, same place.

Computing the global mean temperature data seems to work for RSS too. I still don’t know how best to handle this for the datasets with missing data: perhaps there is no one right answer. Have a play with various schemes something to try and get a feeling for what works well.

Someone asked in private if a dataset subtraction could be done. Yes that is a todo sometime, it would be interesting to see the differences on a global basis.

Categories: Uncategorized